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Section: New Results

Large Deviations Inequalities

Participant : Xiequan Fan.

Let (ξi)i=1,...,n be a sequence of independent and centered random variables satisfying Bernstein's condition, for a constant ε>0,

| 𝔼 ξ i k | 1 2 k ! ε k - 2 𝔼 ξ i 2 , for all k 2 and all i = 1 , . . . , n . (12)

Denote by

S n = i = 1 n ξ i and σ 2 = i = 1 n 𝔼 ξ i 2 . (13)

The well-known Bernstein inequality (1946) states that, for all x>0,

( S n > x σ ) inf λ 0 𝔼 e λ ( S n - x σ ) . (14)

In the i.i.d. case, Cramér (1938) has established a large deviation expansion under the condition 𝔼e|ξ1|<. For all 0x=on, one has

( S n > x σ ) 1 - Φ ( x ) = e x 3 n λ x n 1 + O 1 + x n , n , (15)

where λ(·)=c1+c2xn+... is the Cramér series and the values c1,c2,... depend on the distribution of ξ1.

Bahadur-Rao (1960) proved the following sharp large deviations similar to (15 ). Assume Cramér's condition. Then, for given y>0, there is a constant cy depending on the distribution of ξ1 and y such that

S n n > y = inf λ 0 𝔼 e λ ( S n - y n ) σ y t y 2 π n 1 + O c y n , n , (16)

where ty, σy and cy depend on the distribution of ξ1 and y.

We present an improvement on Bernstein's inequality. In particular, we establish a sharp large deviation expansion similar to the classical results of Cramér and Bahadur-Rao. The following theorem is our main result.

Theorem 0.1 Assume Bernstein's condition. Then, for all 0x<112σε,

( S n > x σ ) = inf λ 0 𝔼 e λ ( S n - x σ ) F x , ε σ , (17)

where 2πM(x) is the Mills ratio, the function

F x , ε σ = M ( x ) + 28 θ R 4 x ε / σ ε σ (18)

with

R ( t ) = ( 1 - t + 6 t 2 ) 3 ( 1 - 3 t ) 3 / 2 ( 1 - t ) 7 , 0 t < 1 3 , (19)

and |θ|1. In particular, in the i.i.d. case, for all 0x=o(n),n,

( S n > x σ ) - M ( x ) inf λ 0 𝔼 e λ ( S n - x σ ) = O 1 n inf λ 0 𝔼 e λ ( S n - x σ ) (20)

and thus

( S n > x σ ) M ( x ) inf λ 0 𝔼 e λ ( S n - x σ ) = 1 + o 1 . (21)